NZ and Oz ‘in lockstep’ – almost always

Analysis: Christopher Luxon is doing his best to stick close to New Zealand’s big brother, as the allies navigate an increasingly volatile world.
During his third trip to Australia, and his first Australia-New Zealand Leaders’ Meeting, Luxon presented an increasingly hawkish tone, and clarified his vision for building closer defence and security ties with Canberra, and other Five Eyes nations.
That message was received loud and clear by New Zealand’s only formal ally.
“Our ties, of course, are older than our democracy,” Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said, adding that the connection was so strong “we regard ourselves as family”.
The Australian Prime Minister said the countries’ flags were a reminder that “we steer by the same stars”.
The bond was more than “old affection”, he said, it was a partnership driven by “new determination”.
The comments were made during a joint press conference in front of Australia’s Parliament House on Friday, and followed similar commitments made by Luxon throughout the trip.
“You are more relevant to us than ever as we forge our path in a more contested world.  And, dare I say, we are more relevant to you than ever before, too,” Luxon told Australia.
“The bonds of history, geography, common values, our deep people-to-people links are often captured in a simple phrase – we are family.”
Being family means having each others’ backs when things turn gnarly. And one of the key developments to come out of the day of meetings was a restating of the post WWII Anzus Treaty in the context of the modern, geostrategic environment.
If a malicious cyber-attack on either country threatened the “territorial integrity, political independence or security” of either nation, it could be a breach of international law and trigger article four of the treaty, the leaders said.
Essentially, if it’s bad enough, it’ll be seen the same way as an armed attack on a formal ally.
Luxon said it would have to be a “pretty severe” attack to invoke article four, while Albanese said “an attack on an economy can bring down the operation of an entire society”.
Luxon implied cyber attacks so far attributed to states, including China and North Korea, had not met that threshold. But in an increasingly volatile world, where the rules-based order was giving way to great power rivalry, the two weren’t counting it out.
Meanwhile, the two countries committed to extending their defence cooperation, with Luxon citing New Zealand’s defence capability plan as an opportunity to sync up with Australia and embark on joint procurement projects.
The capability plan, which has been delayed as a new set of defence top brass get their feet under the desk, is now due to be delivered by the end of the year at the earliest.
Luxon said he wanted New Zealand to be a “force multiplier” for Australia, as his Government slowly inched towards its commitment to lift defence spending to 2 percent of GDP.
New Zealand’s infrastructure and capability issues have been well-traversed, and in recent years they have been exacerbated by high staff turnover and low morale. In some cases, the navy’s ships have been unable to leave port because of a lack of personnel.
Despite this, Luxon shrugged off a question about Australia’s active recruit of New Zealand defence personnel, and instead focused on the exchanges and intentional embedding of one-star and two-star officers.
“We face the most strategic circumstances the since the Second World War,” Albanese said. “And today, the Prime Minister and I have committed to working in lockstep like never before to assure our nation’s security and prosperity.”
When asked whether he thought New Zealand should join Aukus Pillar II, Albanese said “it makes sense to engage like-minded countries” in the new-age security pact. However, he didn’t say when he expected the group would extend the invitation.
While a debate on Aukus is raging on both sides of the Tasman, high profile former foreign officials and politicians – including Helen Clark and Don Brash – have launched an anti-Aukus campaign, accusing Luxon of abandoning New Zealand’s independent foreign policy.
On Thursday, when asked about the appeal of Aukus, Luxon described the technology-focussed part of the alliance as “loosely defined and ethereal”. 
There’s no doubt the US election has something to do with the protracted process, but tricky domestic politics aside, it seems unlikely New Zealand will be signing up to Aukus anytime soon.
Across his two days in Australia, Luxon spoke of the importance of aligning New Zealand more closely with Australia and traditional Five Eyes allies, as well as taking advantage of the rise of minilateral groupings.
Given the current state of the world, the coalition Government seems to be working hard to get a seat at the table, to avoid ending up on the plate.
But, like all families, there are things New Zealand and Australia don’t see eye-to-eye on – namely, the issue of Australia’s so-called 501 deportees.
More than 3000 501s have been deported since 2015, and since arriving in New Zealand, have committed thousands of crimes.
Meanwhile, the influx of the 501s had been linked to the growth in gang numbers, and the establishment of New Zealand chapters of outlaw motorbike gangs.
The issue has been a longstanding thorn in the side of the trans-Tasman relationship, and came to a head under Jacinda Ardern’s leadership. 
Then immigration minister Peter Dutton refused to back down from the policy, which saw thousands of criminals sent to New Zealand, despite many of them having no connection or formative experiences in New Zealand.
The policy was described as being “corrosive” to the trans-Tasman relationship, and when Albanese took power, he issued a new directive to take “a commonsense approach” to 501s. In practice, that meant not sending back people who were effectively Australians.
But earlier this year, he reneged on that promise, with an election looming in 2025, and immigration ever a hot-button issue in Australia.
On Friday, when asked by New Zealand media how he could justify contributing to New Zealand’s crime problem with what were effectively Aussie-grown criminals, Albanese said “notwithstanding the provocative nature of the tone in the question” his job was to look after the safety of Australians.
Both Albanese and Luxon – who nodded along with Albanese’s response – stated that a commonsense approach to the issue prevailed, despite the official change of direction, suggesting that in-practice not much had changed.
And the number of 501s entering the country each month since Australia officially reverted to its hardline stance were consistent with those from before the u-turn.
When asked about the 501 issue, Luxon said he had raised the issue of the 501s – something he thought important enough to include in his opening remarks during the leaders’ joint press conference.
“We’ve got a very strongly held position. We don’t think it’s fair, and I’ve articulated that, and the Prime Minister’s assured me, there’ll be a commonsense approach to it.”
While this issue stole much of the focus, both leaders stressed the success of the new pathway to citizenship, which had seen about 30,000 Kiwis become Aussie citizens, with a total of 60,000 applications received.
Prior to the policy, which Albanese championed, there was no path to citizenship for people who had settled across the ditch, meaning their access to support and services was also limited.
Luxon said he would continue to monitor the 501 situation, but stressed the trans-Tasman relationship was bigger than this issue.
“The New Zealand-Australia relationship is in fantastic shape,” he said.
And given the state of the region, Luxon knows he needs to keep it that way.
While this visit felt like Luxon’s first real public foreign policy test, he’s been working on the diplomacy side of things for a while now.
The former business leader knows part of his role is building leader-to-leader relationships. From that point of connection, or shared interest, it’s easier to start to work through meaty economic and security issues.
Luxon excels in this part of the job, with a natural ability to make people feel important; like they’re his good friend. 
The importance of this skill cannot be overstated. As a leader of a small country, Luxon needs every tool in his kit to secure a seat at the table and get some wins on the board.
In Australia, that connection already exists. The self-described “aviation nerds” have known each other for a long time, and aside from formal meetings, the pair regularly messages each other on a range of issues.
Both Luxon and Albanese stressed that a component in the strong relationship was a bit of humour.
Throughout the two-day trip, Luxon ribbed the Aussies over the per capita Olympic medal table. At one point, Luxon even asserted to Albanese that New Zealand won the Olympics.
In a moment that felt a lot like a genuine sibling rivalry, the Aussie PM hit back with a quick retort: “You can leave now.” Moments later, the pair and their officials launched into a bilateral meeting.
For a short day of engagements, the leaders dedicated a disproportionate amount of time to talking and joking about sport – especially rugby league.
Luxon and Albanese both poked fun at the media, and while on the locally famous “roo tour” at Government House grounds, Luxon pretended to mistake the travelling press pack as a group of kangaroos.
And on a few occasions, Luxon referenced Australian breakdancer Raygun. At one point, he mentioned the Olympic meme sensation in the same sentence as national treasure Steve Irwin and suffragette Kate Shepherd.
When asked about his comments, Luxon hit back: “It’s called humour.” Albanese used an almost identical line when media referenced a recent joke from Luxon about keeping language (particularly te reo Māori) “simple” for Australians. 
While Luxon has been stepping up his relationship with Canberra, back home the relationship between Māori and the Crown is becoming more fractious by the day.
A trip overseas is often a chance for the prime minister to step away from the difficult domestic issues of the day, but Luxon had no such reprieve during his sojourn across the ditch.
Following his first major foreign policy address to the Lowy Institute – one that looked to build on Winston Peters’ statements and clarify New Zealand’s relationship with its most important partner – the first audience question came from an Australian journalist, who challenged Luxon on his Government’s “chilling” policies relating to Māori.
It didn’t go unnoticed that his foreign policy speech referenced the upcoming 200-year anniversary of the signing of Te Tiriti o Waitangi, paid tribute to the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Island people, and in the official joint communique celebrated the countries’ indigenous people and the central role they played in the bilateral relationship.
Meanwhile, back home, the Waitangi Tribunal released a scathing report on the Government’s plan to introduce the Treaty Principles Bill – an Act coalition win, which sought to redefine the Treaty.
Luxon admitted forming a coalition meant reaching a compromise “that probably neither of us would be happy with”, adding that it was a “challenging issue”.
Ngāpuhi has already walked away from a meeting with Luxon, telling the Priem Minister he’s not welcome back.
Now he will be facing up to iwi again on Monday when he attends Koroneihana – the annual celebration of the coronation of the Māori King Tūheitia – in Ngāruawahia. 
With the repeal of section 7AA, the gang patch legislation and the Treaty Principles Bill on the agenda, Luxon will likely be thinking his travel to the Pacific Islands Forum at the end of August can’t come soon enough.